Cox Automotive Forecast: An Upside Shock Anticipated for U.S. Auto Gross sales in Q1 2023

ATLANTA, March 28, 2023 – Cox Automotive, the world’s largest automotive providers and expertise supplier, forecasts new-vehicle gross sales quantity in Q1 will enhance by almost 6% yr over yr, reaching 3.5 million models. Gross sales quantity in March, the ultimate month of Q1, is predicted to be close to 1.30 million, a rise of two.6% from March 2022. By Q1, the seasonally adjusted annual charge (SAAR) is forecast at 15.0 million, a rise of greater than 6% in comparison with the 14.1 million SAAR within the first quarter of 2022.

A key driver of the elevated gross sales is the vastly improved new-vehicle stock stage, which is up roughly 70% from the quantity recorded within the early months of 2022. Gross sales in Q1 had been additionally helped by a notable enhance in fleet exercise. Fleet gross sales in January had been up 58% year-over-year. In February, fleet gross sales elevated by 48%. An identical enhance is predicted in March.

“The stronger begin to 2023 has led us to make optimistic revisions to our car gross sales forecasts, however we proceed to consider provide constraints and affordability points will put a ceiling on what’s attainable within the yr forward,” famous Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “With the job market nonetheless robust, the most important demand downside for automotive in 2023 might be rising rates of interest that push many would-be consumers out of the market.”

Tesla Grabs Extra Share; GM Stays On High

Basic Motors will end Q1 because the No. 1 vendor of latest automobiles within the U.S. A yr in the past, Toyota was on high. Thanks principally to improved stock ranges, Cox Automotive is forecasting GM gross sales to extend greater than 15% yr over yr and attain 587,000 models. Gross sales, nonetheless, might be down from This fall 2022, when GM’s quantity hit 618,692.

Tesla, which lowered costs within the first quarter to spark demand, is forecast to submit stable gross sales good points and surpass market share of 5% for the primary time. Tesla gross sales in Q1 are anticipated to succeed in 180,000, a report quarter for the corporate within the U.S. and a acquire of almost 40% from Q1 2022. Tesla would be the high luxury-vehicle vendor within the U.S. in Q1, by far, with gross sales greater than double that of BMW or Mercedes.

Cox Automotive Will increase Full-12 months Outlook After Robust Begin in 2023

After a stronger-than-expected begin to 2023, Cox Automotive is adjusting its full-year new-vehicle gross sales forecast to 14.2 million, a rise of almost 3% from 2022. Whereas new-vehicle stock is predicted to enhance via the yr, elevated costs and common auto mortgage charges above 8% are anticipated to carry again new-vehicle gross sales. In Q1, the standard new-vehicle mortgage cost was greater than $750 a month, an quantity out of attain for a lot of households.

“The Q1 result’s surprisingly robust given all of the unhealthy financial information,” mentioned Charlie Chesbough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “However we anticipate the upside market skilled in Q1 gained’t final all year long. The truth is, gross sales quantity in Q1 might be down 3% from final quarter, suggesting that market headwinds are rising. Stock ranges at some automakers are shifting again up above pre-pandemic regular, suggesting that general demand has slowed in some corners of the market.”

Fleet gross sales for the complete yr of 2023 are forecast at 2.2 million, up 23% from 2022, when 1.8 million models had been offered to industrial consumers.

March 2023 Gross sales Forecast Highlights

• The annual gross sales tempo in March is predicted to complete close to 14.1 million, up 0.5 million from final March’s 13.6 million tempo however down from February’s 14.9 million stage.
• Gross sales quantity is predicted to rise 2.6% from one yr in the past and attain 1.3 million models.
• There are 27 promoting days in March 2023, equal to March 2022.

March 2023 Gross sales Forecast

Q1 2023 Gross sales Forecast Highlights

• Whereas new-vehicle gross sales might be decrease than final quarter, gross sales in Q1 exceeded expectations and are forecast to extend by 5.7% yr over yr.
• Higher stock ranges and better fleet gross sales had been key drivers of the Q1 gross sales progress.
• After a powerful begin to the yr, Cox Automotive has elevated its full-year new-vehicle gross sales forecast to 14.2 million, up greater than 3% from 2022.

Q1 2023 Gross sales Forecast

All percentages are primarily based on uncooked quantity, not every day promoting charge. There have been 75 promoting days in each Q1 2022 and Q1 2023.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive providers and expertise supplier. Fueled by the most important breadth of first-party knowledge fed by 2.3 billion on-line interactions a yr, Cox Automotive tailors main options for automotive buyers, automakers, sellers, retailers, lenders and fleet homeowners. The corporate has 25,000+ workers on 5 continents and a household of trusted manufacturers that features Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue E book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™ and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based firm with $22 billion in annual income. Go to coxautoinc.com or join by way of @CoxAutomotive on Twitter, CoxAutoInc on Fb or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn. 

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